Does sixth on a grade 4 waitlist ever turn into a seat once the year starts?

We applied to a second IB school in March because it's twenty minutes closer than our daughter's current one. Last week we got an email saying she is sixth on the waitlist for grade 4, and that they'll 'be in touch if a seat opens'. Nothing else. Her current school's re-enrolment payment was due, so we've paid it. For families who have sat on a waitlist: did it move at all in June and July, or did it mostly stay a list? I'd like to know whether to keep her expecting a possible change or tell her it's settled for this year.